Indonesia’s trade surplus reached $4.10 billion in June 2025, marking five years of uninterrupted gains. Yet beneath the surface, softening monthly figures and structural commodity reliance could challenge the nation’s trade stability going forward.
Key Facts & Background
- June 2025 trade surplus: $4.10 billion—slightly down from $4.30 billion in May 2025.
- Indonesia’s trade balance has stayed positive for 62 straight months since May 2020.
- Exports in June: $23.44 billion — up 11.29% YoY.
- Imports: $19.33 billion — up 4.28% YoY.
- Non-oil and gas (non-migas) surplus: $5.22 billion, supported by:
- Animal/vegetable fats and oils (HS15)
- Mineral fuels (HS27)
- Iron and steel (HS72)
- Oil and gas (migas) trade: Deficit of $1.1 billion, driven by crude oil and refined products.
- Cumulative H1 2025 surplus: $19.48 billion — up from $15.58 billion in H1 2024.
- Non-migas surplus: $28.31 billion
- Migas deficit: $8.83 billion
- Biggest non-migas import drains:
- Mechanical equipment: $13.4 billion
- Electrical machinery: $5.26 billion
- Plastics: $3.72 billion
- Optical and medical instruments: $1.81 billion
- Cereals: $1.67 billion
- Top surplus trading partners (H1 2025):
- United States: $9.92 billion
- India: $6.64 billion
- Philippines: $4.36 billion
- Top deficit sources:
- China: $10.69 billion
- Australia: $2.39 billion
- Brazil: $830 million
Strategic Implications
Indonesia’s trade surplus remains a testament to its export backbone—but sustaining it demands more than just strong commodity numbers. The next challenge lies in evolving from defensive trade positioning to proactive industrial transformation.
Indonesia’s trade surplus is a clear indicator of its robust export competitiveness; however, recent data reveals that month-on-month figures are beginning to narrow. This trend highlights the nation’s sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity prices and shifts in external demand. Such volatility emphasizes the need for a more resilient economic strategy.
The persistent deficit in the oil and gas sector further underscores the vulnerabilities associated with energy imports. To address this challenge, Indonesia must prioritize investments in domestic refining capacity and alternative energy sources. This shift is essential for reducing dependency on foreign energy and ensuring long-term energy security.
The asymmetrical nature of Indonesia’s trade relationships presents additional challenges. The significant trade deficits with key partners such as China and Australia highlight the necessity for policy recalibration. This could involve renegotiating trade terms to foster more balanced relationships, ultimately strengthening Indonesia’s position in the global market.
On a more positive note, there are substantial opportunities for growth in sectors such as animal oils, steel, and minerals. The robust performance of these exports suggests a clear pathway for vertical integration, enabling Indonesia to capture higher value within its supply chains. This not only enhances economic stability but also encourages domestic industry investment.
However, import trends indicate an increasing dependence on machinery and advanced technology, raising concerns about existing gaps in domestic capabilities and innovation. To address these issues, Indonesia must focus on bolstering its technological infrastructure and supporting local industries to innovate and compete globally.