Indonesia’s export performance surged in 2025, with total shipments reaching USD209.8 billion from January to September—an 8.14% increase year-on-year. The growth was fueled by non-oil and gas exports, particularly from industrial processing and agriculture, signaling resilience amid global trade shifts. As the country diversifies its export base and strengthens ties with key partners like China and the U.S., its trade outlook remains robust and strategically positioned.
Key Facts & Background
- Total exports from January to September 2025 reached USD209.80 billion, up 8.14% compared to the same period in 2024.
- Non-oil and gas (nonmigas) exports rose 9.57% to USD199.77 billion, while oil and gas (migas) exports declined 14.09% to USD10.03 billion.
- Industrial processing was the leading contributor to nonmigas export growth, accounting for 12.58% of the increase.
- Key rising commodities included:
- Palm oil and derivatives
- Non-ferrous base metals
- Jewelry and precious goods
- Organic chemicals from agriculture
- Semiconductors and electronic components.
- Exports to China reached USD46.47 billion, up 9.19% year-on-year.
- Exports to the U.S., ASEAN, and the EU also increased, while shipments to India declined.
- In September 2025 alone, exports totaled USD24.68 billion, up 11.41% from September 2024.
- Nonmigas exports rose 12.79% to USD23.68 billion, while migas exports fell 13.61% to USD0.99 billion.
- Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD4.34 billion in September 2025, continuing a 64-month streak since May 2020.
Strategic Insights
Indonesia’s export performance in 2025 reflects a strategic pivot toward value-added manufacturing and agricultural diversification, positioning the country as a competitive player in global supply chains. The strong growth in nonmigas exports—particularly in semiconductors, processed metals, and organic chemicals—signals a maturing industrial base capable of meeting international demand beyond raw commodities.
The decline in oil and gas exports, while notable, underscores a broader global trend of energy transition and price volatility, which Indonesia appears to be counterbalancing through industrial and agricultural resilience. This shift not only reduces dependency on fossil fuels but also aligns with sustainability goals and long-term economic stability.
China’s role as Indonesia’s top export destination remains pivotal, with nearly USD46.5 billion in trade, driven by demand for palm oil, metals, and electronics. The growth in exports to the U.S., ASEAN, and the EU further reflects Indonesia’s diversified trade diplomacy, reducing exposure to single-market risks and enhancing geopolitical leverage.
The consistent monthly trade surpluses—culminating in 64 consecutive months—highlight Indonesia’s strong external balance, which supports currency stability and investor confidence. However, the dip in exports to India suggests the need for targeted market re-engagement, especially in sectors like coal and textiles where demand has softened.