Indonesia’s trade watchdog has reignited scrutiny over Chinese steel imports, signaling a renewed push to protect domestic manufacturers. The investigation targets hot rolled coil (HRC) products from Wuhan Iron & Steel (WISCO), amid rising concerns of market distortion. As global trade tensions evolve, this case could reshape Indonesia’s industrial policy and its stance on fair competition.
Key Facts & Background:
- On September 1, 2025, the Indonesian Anti-Dumping Committee (KADI) initiated a formal investigation into alleged dumping of hot rolled coil (HRC) steel products by China’s Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Co., or WISCO.
- The probe follows a petition from PT Krakatau Posco, supported by four other domestic steel producers: PT Krakatau Steel Tbk, PT Gunung Raja Paksi, PT Java Pacific, and PT New Asia Internasional.
- KADI found preliminary evidence of material injury to Indonesia’s domestic industry and a causal link to alleged dumping practices.
- The investigation covers 18 tariff lines under the Harmonized System (HS), as listed in the 2022 Indonesian Customs Tariff Book (BTKI).
- The review period is set for 12 months, extendable to 18 months under Government Regulation No. 34/2011 on trade remedies.
- Although Indonesia has imposed anti-dumping duties (BMAD) on Chinese HRC imports since 2008, WISCO currently enjoys a 0% duty under the latest regulation (PMK No. 103/PMK.011/2024), effectively exempting it.
- Despite this, WISCO’s share of Indonesia’s HRC imports rose from 23.49% in 2023 to 31.58% in 2024, prompting renewed scrutiny.
- KADI has formally notified stakeholders, including domestic producers, importers, exporters, and Chinese government representatives.
Strategic Insights:
Trade Defense as Industrial Strategy
Indonesia’s decision to reopen an antidumping investigation reflects a broader strategic pivot toward industrial self-reliance. With domestic steel producers facing margin pressure and market share erosion, trade remedies like BMAD serve as tools to level the playing field. The case against WISCO could set a precedent for more assertive enforcement, especially as Indonesia seeks to strengthen its downstream manufacturing base.
Market Share Dynamics and Policy Gaps
The rise in WISCO’s import share despite a 0% BMAD exposes a critical gap in enforcement and policy calibration. De minimis duties may inadvertently incentivize aggressive pricing strategies that undercut local producers. This trend underscores the need for dynamic monitoring mechanisms and periodic reassessment of duty structures to ensure they reflect real-time market conditions.
Balancing Protection and Competition
While antidumping measures aim to shield domestic industries from unfair competition, they must be balanced against the risks of protectionism. Overly restrictive trade policies can lead to supply bottlenecks, higher input costs, and retaliation from trade partners. Indonesia’s challenge lies in crafting a nuanced approach that supports industrial competitiveness without stifling innovation or global integration.
Legal and Diplomatic Implications
The investigation may test Indonesia’s diplomatic ties with China, its largest trading partner. Transparent procedures, adherence to WTO rules, and stakeholder engagement will be critical to maintaining credibility. The involvement of embassies and government representatives signals the geopolitical sensitivity of the case and the importance of managing it with tact.
Long-Term Industrial Policy Considerations
Beyond immediate trade remedies, this case invites reflection on Indonesia’s long-term steel strategy. Investments in capacity, technology, and supply chain resilience will be essential to reduce dependency on imports. The antidumping probe could catalyze broader reforms in industrial policy, including incentives for domestic production and stricter quality standards.