Indonesia is on track to achieve full rice self-sufficiency in 2025, with production projected to rise by 4.1 million tons—its highest increase since official data revisions. This milestone, driven by domestic agricultural reforms, eliminates the need for rice imports and strengthens national food security. With government rice reserves at a five-year high, Indonesia is poised to stabilize prices and assert greater control over its food system.
Key Facts & Background
- Projected rice production in 2025: 34.77 million tons, up from over 30 million tons in 2024.
- Production increase: 4.1 million tons, the highest since BPS data revisions.
- No rice imports expected in 2025, marking a significant policy shift under President Prabowo Subianto’s food self-sufficiency agenda.
- Government Rice Reserves (CBP) projected to exceed 3 million tons by year-end—the highest in 18 years without imports.
- Current rice stock (as of 7 November 2025): 3.923 million tons, comprising:
- 3.743 million tons CBP
- 180,100 tons commercial stock
- Domestic procurement by Bulog in 2025: 3.264 million tons, including:
- 3.056 million tons for CBP
- 208,400 tons for commercial use
- CBP distribution to the public: 1.031 million tons through programs such as:
- Stabilization of Supply and Food Prices (SPHP)
- Food aid
- Disaster relief
- Civil servant allocations
- Price stabilization efforts include:
- Market operations
- Oversight by a multi-agency task force across 38 provinces and 514 districts/cities
- Over 5,000 monitoring activities conducted as of 6 November 2025
Strategic Insights
Indonesia’s 2025 rice production surge marks a turning point in its agricultural and food security strategy. By achieving a projected output of 34.77 million tons and eliminating the need for imports, the country is not only safeguarding domestic supply but also reshaping its role in the global rice market. This self-sufficiency milestone reflects the success of President Prabowo’s four-year food sovereignty roadmap, which emphasizes farmer welfare, domestic procurement, and strategic reserve management.
The expansion of Government Rice Reserves (CBP) to over 3 million tons—without relying on imports—is historically significant. It demonstrates the effectiveness of Bulog’s procurement and distribution mechanisms, supported by Bapanas’ coordination and real-time monitoring. This buffer stock provides a critical cushion against climate shocks, price volatility, and geopolitical disruptions, ensuring that rice remains affordable and accessible.
Moreover, Indonesia’s decision to halt rice imports has had ripple effects on global commodity markets, reportedly contributing to a decline in international rice prices from US$650 to US$371 per ton. This shift enhances Indonesia’s bargaining power and underscores its potential to influence regional food dynamics, particularly in Southeast Asia.
The government’s proactive stance—through SPHP market operations and a nationwide price monitoring task force—further reinforces its commitment to price stability and consumer protection. These efforts are crucial as the country navigates inflationary pressures and seeks to maintain public trust in its food policies.