Indonesia’s economic engine continued to gain momentum in the third quarter of 2025, posting a 5.04% year-on-year growth. Household consumption remained the dominant growth driver, supported by a rebound in mobility and tourism. With manufacturing and exports also contributing significantly, the data signals a broad-based recovery and a resilient domestic demand base.
Key Facts & Background
- Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.04% year-on-year (yoy) in Q3 2025, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).
- Main contributors to GDP growth:
- Household consumption: 2.54 percentage points (pp)
- Net exports: 2.15 pp
- Gross fixed capital formation (PMTB): 1.59 pp
- Household consumption accounted for 53.14% of GDP, growing 4.89% yoy, driven by:
- Increased spending on transportation, communication, restaurants, and hotels
- Rising domestic mobility and tourism activity
- PMTB (investment) contributed 29.09% to GDP, while exports made up 23.64%.
- From the production side:
- Manufacturing industry was the top contributor, adding 1.13 pp to growth.
- Manufacturing’s share of GDP: 19.15%
- Annual growth in manufacturing: 5.54% yoy, led by:
- Food and beverage
- Basic metals
- Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and traditional medicine
- Other key sectors: agriculture, trade, construction, and mining, collectively contributing 65.02% of GDP.
- All regions recorded positive growth, with:
- Sulawesi leading at 5.84% yoy
- Java contributing the largest share of GDP at 56.68%, followed by Sumatra at 22.42%
- Nominal GDP (ADHB) in Q3 2025: Rp6,060 trillion
- Real GDP (ADHK): Rp3,444.8 trillion
- Quarter-on-quarter (qtq) growth: 1.43%
- Cumulative growth (Jan–Sep 2025): 5.01%
Strategic Insights
Indonesia’s Q3 2025 economic performance underscores the country’s resilience and structural rebalancing in the face of global uncertainties. The 5.04% annual growth rate, anchored by robust household consumption, reflects a sustained recovery in domestic demand, particularly in sectors tied to mobility, leisure, and services. This trend is consistent with broader post-pandemic shifts toward experience-based spending and urban economic reactivation.
The strong showing in manufacturing—especially in food processing, metals, and chemicals—signals a dual engine of growth: domestic consumption and export-oriented industrialization. The sector’s 5.54% growth rate and nearly one-fifth share of GDP highlight its central role in Indonesia’s industrial policy and job creation strategy. Continued investment in downstream processing and value-added production will be key to maintaining this momentum.
The regional growth spread, with Sulawesi outperforming and Java maintaining dominance, points to gradual spatial rebalancing. While Java remains the economic core, the rise of eastern regions suggests that infrastructure investments and decentralization policies are beginning to bear fruit. This spatial diversification is critical for inclusive growth and national cohesion.
On the investment front, the steady contribution of PMTB indicates investor confidence, though further acceleration will depend on regulatory clarity, infrastructure readiness, and global capital flows. The positive net export contribution, despite global trade headwinds, reflects Indonesia’s commodity strength and growing manufacturing competitiveness.