Indonesia’s fiscal balance opened the year in deficit. The Ministry of Finance reported that the state budget (APBN) recorded a shortfall of Rp54.6 trillion in January 2026. This early gap reflects the dynamics of revenue collection and government spending at the start of the fiscal year.
Key Facts & Background
Deficit Size: The APBN posted a Rp54.6 trillion deficit in January 2026, equivalent to 0.19 percent of GDP.
Revenue Performance:
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- State revenue reached Rp226.2 trillion, down 8.4 percent year-on-year.
- Tax revenue contributed Rp186.5 trillion, declining 9.1 percent compared to January 2025.
- Non-tax revenue (PNBP) stood at Rp39.7 trillion, down 4.9 percent.
Expenditure:
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- Government spending totaled Rp280.8 trillion, up 3.2 percent year-on-year.
- Spending was directed toward subsidies, social assistance, and infrastructure projects.
Financing: The deficit was covered through financing instruments, including government securities issuance.
Context: The early-year deficit is common, as spending commitments often outpace revenue collection in the first quarter.
Macroeconomic Indicators:
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- Inflation remained contained within Bank Indonesia’s target range.
- Economic growth projections for 2026 remain above 5 percent, supported by household consumption and investment.
Strategic Insights
The Rp54.6 trillion deficit in January 2026 reflects the seasonal pattern of Indonesia’s fiscal operations, where spending commitments typically exceed revenue collection early in the year. While the shortfall is modest relative to GDP, the decline in tax and non-tax revenue highlights ongoing challenges in broadening the revenue base and sustaining fiscal resilience. Rising expenditures on subsidies and social programs underscore the government’s commitment to supporting households and infrastructure, but they also demand careful fiscal management to avoid long-term imbalances. For Indonesia, maintaining investor confidence and fiscal credibility will require consistent revenue reforms, efficient spending, and prudent debt management.