Indonesia’s trade balance continues its winning streak, recording a surplus for the 63rd consecutive month as of July 2025. Fueled by robust non-oil and gas exports and a surge in manufacturing shipments, the country’s external sector remains a pillar of economic resilience. As global trade faces headwinds, Indonesia’s performance offers a compelling case study in strategic diversification and industrial momentum.
Key Facts & Background:
- Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$23.65 billion from January to July 2025, up US$7.40 billion from the same period in 2024.
- This marks the 63rd straight month of surplus since May 2020, driven by a non-oil and gas (nonmigas) surplus of US$34.06 billion, offsetting a US$10.41 billion deficit in oil and gas (migas) trade.
- Exports rose 8.03% year-on-year, reaching US$160.16 billion, with the manufacturing sector contributing US$128.13 billion—an increase of 17.40%.
- Top export destinations were China (US$34.46 billion), the United States (US$17.89 billion), and India (US$10.87 billion), collectively accounting for 41.53% of nonmigas exports.
- Key export commodities included palm oil, mineral fuels, iron and steel, nickel products, and footwear.
- Imports totaled US$136.51 billion, up 3.41% year-on-year, with nonmigas imports rising 6.97% and migas imports falling 14.79%.
- Capital goods imports surged 20.56% to US$27.38 billion, indicating strong investment activity.
- China remained Indonesia’s largest import source, followed by Japan and the United States.
Strategic Insights:
Trade Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty
Indonesia’s sustained trade surplus reflects its ability to navigate global economic turbulence through strategic commodity exports and industrial expansion. The 63-month streak is not merely a statistical achievement—it signals structural improvements in export competitiveness, particularly in processed goods and value-added sectors. This positions Indonesia as a stable player in regional supply chains, especially as global trade patterns shift post-pandemic.
Manufacturing Sector as a Growth Engine
The 17.40% surge in manufacturing exports underscores the sector’s rising role in Indonesia’s economic transformation. From nickel-based products to footwear and electrical machinery, the diversification of export goods suggests progress in industrial upgrading. This trend supports long-term goals of reducing reliance on raw commodity exports and enhancing domestic value creation.
Capital Goods Imports Signal Investment Momentum
The sharp rise in capital goods imports—up over 20%—indicates robust domestic investment, particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing, and digital transformation. This bodes well for future productivity and export capacity, aligning with Indonesia’s ambition to become a regional production hub. Policymakers may leverage this momentum to accelerate industrial policy reforms and attract foreign direct investment.
China’s Dual Role: Top Export Market and Import Source
China’s dominance as both Indonesia’s largest export destination and import origin highlights the deep interdependence between the two economies. While exports to China are driven by resource-based goods, imports are concentrated in machinery and vehicles—suggesting a complementary trade structure. This dynamic presents opportunities for strategic bilateral agreements, but also calls for diversification to mitigate external risks.
Oil and Gas Deficit: A Persistent Vulnerability
Despite the overall surplus, the continued deficit in oil and gas trade remains a structural challenge. As Indonesia’s energy demand grows, reducing reliance on imported fuel through domestic production and renewable energy investment will be critical. The narrowing of the migas deficit compared to 2024 is a positive sign, but long-term energy security strategies are needed.