Indonesia’s trade balance recorded its 70th consecutive monthly surplus in February 2026, a streak that began in May 2020 and has now outlasted multiple global shocks including the pandemic, commodity supercycles, and now an active conflict in the Middle East. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported a surplus of USD 1.27 billion in February 2026, with exports at USD 22.17 billion and imports at USD 20.89 billion — figures that show the surplus held, but narrowed. The February data also arrives with an unmistakable caveat: imports are growing significantly faster than exports, and the oil and gas deficit is widening in step with rising global energy prices.
Key Facts & Background
- The February 2026 surplus of USD 1.27 billion brought the cumulative January–February 2026 surplus to USD 2.23 billion, supported by a USD 5.42 billion non-oil and gas surplus, partially offset by a USD 3.19 billion oil and gas deficit.
- In January 2026, the monthly surplus had already narrowed sharply to USD 0.95 billion — down from USD 2.51 billion in December 2025 and USD 3.49 billion in January 2025 — signaling a compressing trend at the start of the year.
- Exports in January–February 2026 rose 2.19% year-on-year, driven primarily by manufacturing at USD 37.06 billion (+6.69%). By contrast, imports surged 14.44% year-on-year to USD 42.09 billion, with non-oil and gas imports jumping 17.49%.
- Indonesia’s top three non-oil and gas export destinations in January–February 2026 were China (USD 10.46 billion, 24.69%), the United States (USD 5.00 billion, 11.81%), and India (USD 3.11 billion, 7.35%) — together accounting for 43.85% of total non-oil and gas exports.
- For the full year 2025, Indonesia posted a trade surplus of USD 41.05 billion — up from USD 31.33 billion in 2024 — driven by a USD 60.75 billion non-oil and gas surplus against a USD 19.70 billion oil and gas deficit.
- Palm oil (CPO) exports surged 59.63% year-on-year in January 2026 to USD 2.29 billion, with volume rising 77.07% to 2.24 million tons — accounting for approximately 10.78% of total non-oil and gas export value, making it one of the most significant single-commodity contributors to the surplus.
Note: Multi-source AI data analytics, with the possibility of inaccuracies.
Insights
Seventy months of trade surplus is impressive—but the February 2026 data shows it’s starting to feel pressure from both sides. The surplus is now fully supported by non-oil and gas exports like palm oil, manufacturing, iron, steel, and nickel. Meanwhile, the energy side keeps running a deficit—and it’s getting bigger, already exceeding USD 3 billion over just two months. Looking ahead, that energy gap will likely widen. Indonesia has committed to importing around USD 15 billion of U.S. energy each year, which creates a fixed cost regardless of global oil prices.
At the same time, imports are growing much faster than exports (14.44% vs 2.19%). This reflects stronger domestic demand and industrial activity—which is good for growth—but it naturally reduces the trade surplus over time. There’s also external pressure. Disruptions in the Middle East have already forced some Indonesian petrochemical producers to cut processing, which could slow industrial output and reduce exports in the coming months.
So while the long surplus streak still shows resilience, the real question now is this: can Indonesia’s non-oil export engine grow fast enough to offset rising energy imports, higher costs, and new trade commitments?