A narrow July surplus restores Indonesia’s positive trade balance, but rapid import growth is eroding the cushion provided by strong non-oil exports.
Indonesia returned to a trade surplus in July 2026, offering modest support for the country’s external position after a deficit a month earlier. The surplus, however, was exceptionally thin as imports continued to expand far faster than exports.
The trade balance posted a US$121.9 million surplus, reversing June’s US$450.5 million deficit, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Cumulatively, Indonesia recorded a US$3.70 billion surplus in January–July.
Key figures
- July exports: US$26.22 billion, up 6.05% year on year
- July imports: US$26.09 billion, up 27.02%
- Non-oil and gas surplus: US$3.10 billion
- Oil and gas deficit: US$2.98 billion
- January–July trade surplus: US$3.70 billion
The composition of the balance is more significant than the headline surplus. Non-oil and gas exports reached US$25.43 billion, supported by mineral fuels, iron and steel, and electrical machinery and equipment. China, the United States and India remained Indonesia’s principal non-oil export markets. Meanwhile, a decline in oil and gas imports helped narrow the sector’s deficit from US$3.49 billion in June.
Bank Indonesia, the country’s central bank, said the surplus would help reinforce Indonesia’s external resilience.
Yet the underlying trend warrants attention. Imports jumped 19.94% year on year during January–July, compared with export growth of only 4.43%. The cumulative trade surplus has consequently narrowed despite continued strength in non-oil exports.
For businesses, rising imports can also indicate stronger demand for machinery, raw materials and other production inputs, depending on their composition. But if import growth continues to substantially outpace exports, Indonesia’s trade buffer could weaken further.
That matters for policymakers and investors because a smaller trade surplus provides less support to the current account and, ultimately, the rupiah. July’s return to surplus is therefore encouraging—but the trajectory of imports and the persistent energy trade deficit may prove more important than the headline number.