Household spending in Indonesia closed 2025 with steady growth, even as momentum eased after the holiday peak. The Mandiri Spending Index showed resilience across regions and sectors, reflecting strong demand in leisure and consumer goods. These patterns highlight both the opportunities and challenges facing consumption as the country enters 2026.
Key Facts & Background
- Mandiri Spending Index (MSI):
- Recorded at 354.5 on 28 December 2025.
- Increased 0.6% week-on-week, slower than the 4.4% peak growth during Christmas and New Year.
- Regional Trends:
- Sumatra: +1.1% wow.
- Java: +0.9% wow.
- Maluku-Papua: +0.6% wow.
- Balinusra: +0.2% wow.
- Kalimantan: -1.4% wow.
- Sulawesi: -0.1% wow.
- Sectoral Performance:
- Leisure and consumer goods drove spending growth.
- Hotels: +9.3% wow.
- Beauty products: +10.0% wow.
- Fashion: +10.5% wow.
- Dining-out: +7.2% wow.
- Savings Index by Income Group (31 December 2025):
- Lower-income households: 72.4, down 0.71 points from November.
- Upper-income households: 92.0, down 1.64 points.
- Middle-income households: 101.2, up 0.49 points.
- Interpretation:
- Lower-income spending financed by savings.
- Middle-income households showed caution, increasing savings instead of aggressive spending.
- Analysts view this as preparation for Ramadan in February 2026.
- Outlook for 2026:
- Household consumption expected to remain resilient.
- Supported by government spending programs and fiscal stimulus.
- Strong growth anticipated in Q1 2026, aligned with Ramadan-Lebaran momentum.
- Sustainability depends on job creation and employment quality.
Strategic Insights
The Mandiri Spending Index illustrates how Indonesia’s consumer spending remains a cornerstone of economic resilience. While growth slowed after the holiday surge, the overall upward trend signals healthy demand across multiple regions. The strength in leisure and consumer goods reflects evolving consumption habits, where experiences and lifestyle products increasingly dominate household priorities.
Regional disparities highlight the uneven distribution of spending power. Java and Sumatra continue to anchor growth, while Kalimantan and Sulawesi show contraction, pointing to structural differences in economic activity. Addressing these imbalances will be crucial for ensuring inclusive growth across the archipelago.
The savings behavior across income groups offers valuable insight into household strategies. Lower-income households dipping into savings to finance spending suggests vulnerability, while middle-income households increasing savings reflects caution and preparation for upcoming seasonal expenses. This divergence underscores the importance of financial inclusion and targeted support to sustain consumption without eroding household resilience.
Looking ahead, the combination of government stimulus, fiscal spending, and seasonal demand from Ramadan and Lebaran is expected to drive consumption in early 2026. However, the long-term sustainability of household spending will depend on job creation. Employment quantity and quality remain central to ensuring that consumption growth is not only robust but also equitable.
Indonesia’s consumer economy is entering 2026 with cautious optimism. The data shows resilience, but also signals the need for structural reforms to strengthen household purchasing power. If supported by effective policies and inclusive growth strategies, consumption will continue to serve as a vital engine for Indonesia’s economic trajectory.