Bank Indonesia’s official Retail Sales Survey (Survei Penjualan Eceran/SPE), released on March 10, 2026, projects a broad-based increase in retail activity for February 2026, supported by Ramadan consumption and pre-Idulfitri preparations. The Real Sales Index (Indeks Penjualan Riil/IPR) for February 2026 is estimated to have grown 6.9% year-on-year, with month-on-month growth projected at 4.4%, led by gains in Spare Parts & Accessories, Other Household Equipment, and the Apparel sub-category. The release also captures a near-term inflation outlook, with price pressure expected to ease in April before re-accelerating in July 2026.
Key Facts & Background
- February 2026 IPR is forecast to grow 6.9% yoy and 4.4% mtm, driven by Ramadan demand and preparations for the national religious holiday of Idulfitri 1447 H.
- The top-performing categories in February 2026 are Spare Parts & Accessories, Other Household Equipment, and the Apparel sub-category.
- January 2026 IPR grew 5.7% yoy, supported by Cultural & Recreation Goods, Food, Beverages & Tobacco, and Apparel; however, on a monthly basis, retail sales contracted 2.7% mtm, reflecting post-Christmas and New Year consumption normalization.
- The General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for April 2026 is projected at 153.9, down from 175.7 in March 2026, consistent with post-Idulfitri price normalization.
- The IEH for July 2026 is projected at 157.1, higher than the June 2026 IEH of 156.3, driven by anticipated price increases during the new school year season.
- The release was issued by Bank Indonesia’s Communication Department, signed by Executive Director Ramdan Denny Prakoso, on March 10, 2026, under press release reference No.28/62/DKom.
Data sourced from Bank Indonesia.
Insights
February 2026’s projected 6.9% yoy IPR growth is a seasonally expected outcome, not a structural demand signal — the Ramadan and Idulfitri calendar effect is a recurring driver that inflates the February–March window every year. The January 2026 contraction of 2.7% mtm, following post-Nataru normalization, confirms the cyclical rather than trend-driven nature of these figures. The IEH trajectory — peaking at 175.7 in March then dropping to 153.9 in April — mirrors post-holiday price normalization patterns and offers little evidence of durable consumer purchasing power gains. The July re-acceleration to 157.1, attributed to back-to-school demand, is modest and broadly expected. Given Indonesia’s concurrent pressures — a weakening rupiah, above-target inflation, and declining investor confidence — reading this SPE release as a positive consumption story requires caution: the survey captures retailer expectations, not hard transaction data, and seasonal peaks have historically obscured softer underlying demand trends.