Indonesia’s trade balance in October 2025 recorded a surplus, underscoring resilience in non-oil exports despite global uncertainties. While oil and gas exports declined, manufacturing and processing industries continued to drive overall export growth. At the same time, rising imports of capital goods signal ongoing investment momentum and industrial expansion.
Key Facts & Background
- October 2025 Trade Data:
- Exports: US$24.24 billion, down 2.31% year-on-year (yoy), mainly due to weaker oil and gas exports.
- Imports: US$21.84 billion, down 1.15% yoy, though non-oil imports rose 3.26%.
- Trade surplus: US$2.4 billion.
- Cumulative January–October 2025 Data:
- Exports: US$234.04 billion, up 6.96% yoy.
- Imports: US$198.16 billion, up 2.19% yoy.
- Trade surplus: US$35.88 billion, driven by strong non-oil and gas performance.
- Export Trends:
- Growth supported by non-oil exports, especially from manufacturing and processing industries.
- Key destinations: China, the United States, and India.
- Import Trends:
- Increase dominated by capital goods imports, such as machinery and equipment, reflecting investment activity.
- Main sources: China, Japan, and the United States.
Strategic Insights
The decline in oil and gas exports highlights Indonesia’s vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations. However, the strength of non-oil exports, particularly from manufacturing, demonstrates the country’s progress in diversifying its trade base. This shift reduces reliance on volatile energy markets and strengthens long-term competitiveness.
The rise in capital goods imports suggests that businesses are investing in machinery and equipment to expand production capacity. This trend is a positive indicator of industrial upgrading, as it lays the foundation for future productivity gains and supports Indonesia’s ambition to move up the global value chain.
A cumulative surplus of US$35.88 billion provides Indonesia with a buffer against external shocks, such as global demand fluctuations or currency volatility. Sustained surpluses enhance foreign exchange reserves, stabilize the rupiah, and reinforce investor confidence in Indonesia’s economic fundamentals.
China, the U.S., and India remain Indonesia’s largest export markets, underscoring the importance of maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with these economies. On the import side, reliance on China, Japan, and the U.S. reflects Indonesia’s integration into global supply chains, particularly in technology and industrial inputs.